Impaired kidney function biomarkers and risk of severe COVID-19: Analysis of population-based cohort data

Patients with impaired kidney function were found at a high risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality in many observational, cross-sectional, and hospital-based studies, but evidence from large-scale prospective cohorts has been lacking. We aimed to examine the association of kidney function-related biomarkers and their genetic predisposition with the risk of developing severe COVID-19 in population-based data.

We analyzed data from UK Biobank to examine the prospective association of abnormal kidney function biomarkers with severe COVID-19, defined by laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations. Using genotype data, we constructed polygenic risk scores (PRS) to represent an individual's overall genetic risk for these biomarkers. We also identified tipping points where the risk of severe COVID-19 began to increase significantly for each biomarker.

Of the 502,506 adults, 1650 (0.32%) were identified as severe COVID-19, before August 12, 2020. High levels of cystatin C (OR: 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2-1.5; FDR = 1.5 × 10^-5 ), serum creatinine (OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.3-2.1; p = 3.5 × 10^-4 ; FDR = 3.5 × 10^-4 ), microalbuminuria (OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2-1.6; FDR = 4 × 10^-4 ), and UACR (urinary albumin creatinine ratio; OR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.2-1.6; p = 3.5 × 10^-4 ; FDR = 3.5 × 10^-4 ) were found significantly associated with severe COVID-19. Individuals with top 10% of PRS for elevated cystatin C, urate, and microalbuminuria had 28% to 43% higher risks of severe COVID-19 than individuals with bottom 30% PRS (p < 0.05). Tipping-point analyses further supported that severe COVID-19 could occur even when the values of cystatin C, urate (male), and microalbuminuria were within their normal value ranges (OR >1.1, p < 0.05).

Findings from this study might point to new directions for clinicians and policymakers in optimizing risk-stratification among patients based on polygenic risk estimation and tipping points of kidney function markers. Our results call for further investigation to develop a better strategy to prevent severe COVID-19 outcomes among patients with genetic predisposition to impaired kidney function. These findings could provide a new tool for clinicians and policymakers in the future especially if we need to live with COVID-19 for a long time.