Real-time prediction of stomach motions based upon gastric contraction and breathing models

Objective.Precision radiation therapy requires managing motions of organs at risk that occur during treatment. While methods have been developed for real-time respiratory motion tracking, non-breathing intra-fractional variations (including gastric contractile motion) have seen little attention to date. The purpose of this study is to develop a cyclic gastric contractile motion prediction model to support real-time management during radiotherapy.Approach. The observed short-term reproducibility of gastric contractile motion permitted development of a prediction model that (1) extracts gastric contraction motion phases from few minutes of golden angle stack of stars scanning (at patient positioning), (2) estimate gastric phase of real-time sampled data acquired during treatment delivery to these reconstructed phases and (3) predicting future gastric phase by linear extrapolation using estimation results from step 2 to account for processing and system latency times. Model was evaluated on three parameters including training time window for step 1, number of spokes for real-time sampling data in step 2 and future prediction time. Mainresults. The model was tested on a population of 20 min data samples from 25 scans from 15 patients. The mean prediction error with 10 spokes and 2 min training was 0.3 ± 0.1 mm (0.1-0.7 mm) with 5.1 s future time, slowly rising to 0.6 ± 0.2 mm (0.2-1.1 mm) for 6.8 s future time and then increasing rapidly for longer forward predictions, for an average 3.6 ± 0.5 mm (2.8-4.7 mm) HD95 of gastric motion. Results showed that reducing of train time window (5-2 min) does not influence the prediction performance, while using 5 spokes increased prediction errors.Significance. The proposed gastric motion prediction model has sufficiently accurate prediction performance to allow for sub-millimeter accuracy while allowing sufficient time for data processing and machine interaction and shows the potential for clinical implementation to support stomach motion tracking during radiotherapy.