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COVID-19 transmission in cities
1Erasmus University Rotterdam, Tinbergen Institute, Burg. Oudlaan 50, 3062 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
European Economic Review
|October 4, 2022
Summary
Population density may initially increase COVID-19 transmission in cities, but this effect disappears after the first month of an outbreak. These findings suggest spatial policies for recovery and containment may not be effective based on density alone.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Urban Studies
- Public Health
Background:
- Population density is often cited as a key factor in the rapid transmission of infectious diseases.
- Understanding the relationship between urban environments and disease spread is crucial for effective public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate whether cities accelerate the transmission of COVID-19.
- To determine the impact of population density on COVID-19 transmission dynamics over time.
- To inform the development of spatial policies for pandemic response and recovery.
Main Methods:
- Utilized daily COVID-19 case counts from over 3,000 U.S. counties (February-September 2020).
- Estimated a compartmental transmission model to quantify the relationship between population density and transmission.
- Employed instrumental variables to account for rational, location-varying sheltering behavior.
Main Results:
- An increase in population density raised the estimated COVID-19 transmission parameter by approximately 3% within the first month of local infections.
- This density-dependent transmission effect vanished after the initial outbreak month.
- Factors like public transport, remote work, and income explained some transmission variation but not the initial density effect.
- Mobility declines were more pronounced in denser areas, but only after the first month of infections.
Conclusions:
- The impact of population density on COVID-19 transmission is primarily confined to the initial outbreak phase.
- Observed differences in transmission between urban and non-urban areas do not strongly support the use of spatial policies for recovery or containment.
- Location-specific sheltering behaviors, rather than static density, appear to be more critical in modulating transmission over time.
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