Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Phenology

Background:

• Anthropogenic climate change is advancing spring phenology across species.
• The impact of climate change on year-to-year phenological variability is not well understood.
• Phenological timings are critical for species adaptation to abiotic and biotic factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and interannual variability.
• To investigate the impact of climate change on phenological patterns.
• To assess changes in nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series across the Northern Hemisphere.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of nearly 10,000 phenology time series from over 1000 species.
• Examination of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival timings.
• Assessment of temperature sensitivity and interannual variability in phenological events.

Main Results:

• Leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival are most sensitive to temperature.
• Phenological events advanced fastest in early-season species in colder, less seasonal regions.
• No evidence of changing variability in warmer years; leaf-out and flower phenology became less variable.

Conclusions:

• Climate change has not fundamentally altered interannual phenological variability to date.
• Changes in phenological variability patterns may disrupt species adaptations and interactions.
• Further research is needed to understand long-term impacts on ecological synchrony.