Global human-edible nutrient supplies, their sources, and correlations with agricultural environmental impact

Food production, sustainable development, population growth, and agricultural environmental impacts are linked global problems that require complex solutions. Many efforts evaluating these challenges primarily evaluate dietary strategies designed for health and environmental objectives without considering the subsequent adaptations required by the global food supply. Here we use a complementary approach to summarize trends and variability in the current agricultural system in the context of the growing population and impending environmental challenges. Globally, agricultural systems produce sufficient nutrients to feed 10 billion people with the exception of Ca, DHA + EPA, vitamins B4, D, and E. In a network analysis, greenhouse gas emissions were conditionally dependent on ruminant meat and milk, while water use was conditionally dependent on vegetable and fruit production; however, supplies of most nutrients were also dependent on these same production categories, suggesting trade-offs between nutritional and environmental objectives. Future work should evaluate strategies to address these compromises (i.e., improving water use efficiency and reducing greenhouse gas emissions), to explore to what extent such compromises are biophysically essential or merely a product of the current agricultural system structures. Given the time-sensitive nature of population growth and environmental concerns, strategies to make more effective use of currently produced agricultural products will also be critical complementary strategies to sustainably feed the growing population which can work in concert with other agricultural-, diet- and policy-focused efforts.