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Updated: Aug 26, 2025
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Spatial patterns of climate change across the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
Jessica E Tierney1, Jiang Zhu2, Mingsong Li3
1Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721.
Summary
The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) shows high climate sensitivity, with global temperatures rising 5.6°C. This ancient greenhouse event offers insights into polar amplification and hydrological changes relevant to future warming scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Climate modeling
- Earth science
Background:
- The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a key analog for greenhouse climate dynamics.
- Limited spatial data from sedimentary sequences hinder understanding of past climate change patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To create a spatially complete climate reconstruction of the PETM using data assimilation.
- To investigate polar amplification, hydrological cycle response, and climate sensitivity during the PETM.
Main Methods:
- Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) combining climate models and proxy data.
- Development of the PETM-DA reconstruction for spatial climate analysis.
Main Results:
- Confirmed strong polar amplification linked to temperature feedbacks and reduced snow cover.
- Observed hydrological changes: narrowed ITCZ, drying, intensified monsoons and storm tracks.
- Estimated global mean temperature change of 5.6°C during the PETM.
Conclusions:
- PETM climate sensitivity (ECS) was significantly higher (6.5°C) than present, supporting increased sensitivity at high greenhouse gas concentrations.
- Reconstructed climate features resemble projections for future anthropogenic warming.
- PETM-DA provides a robust framework for understanding past climate dynamics and informing future climate predictions.
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