Decoupling and scenario analysis of economy-emissions pattern in China's 30 provinces

The tension between reducing CO₂ emissions and economic growth has become increasingly prominent in recent years, while China is vigorously promoting ecological civilization to achieve sustainable development. However, the factors influencing China's current economic emission nexus at the regional and provincial levels and the sustainability of the strong decoupling state remain unclear. We analyze the decoupling of emissions at the national and provincial levels of the Chinese economy from the perspective of historical patterns and current drivers from 1997 to 2019. Also, we developed three scenarios (i.e., pessimistic, median, and optimistic scenarios) to analyze the impact of decoupling relationship changes. We find that China's national decoupling relationship has eased since 1997, but it has not yet reached the ideal state, with provinces mainly exhibiting weak decoupling. The EKC hypothesis is tested for the whole country and 30 provinces and finds that 15 provinces have two turning points, 13 provinces have one turning point, and the others have no turning point. Based on the scenario analysis, the total emissions in the pessimistic scenario (S1) without any improvement of decoupling would increase by 73.97% compared to the level of 2019. However, the total emissions in the optimistic scenario (S3), in which all provinces obtained strong decoupling, are almost half of the level of 2019. This is mainly from the reduction of emissions in the western less developed regions (e.g., Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang) and developed coastal regions (e.g., Jiangsu and Shandong). On the basis of the results of factor analysis, we put forward policy recommendations for expanding electrification, optimizing industrial structure, and promoting technological innovation.