Agricultural non-point source pollution and health of the elderly in rural China

Large input and high loss of chemical fertilizer are the major causes of agricultural non-point source pollution in China. Employing fertilizer loss and micro-health data, this paper analyzes the effects of chemical fertilizer loss on the health of rural elderly and the medical cost in China. Results of the difference-in-differences (DID) method indicate that one kg/ha increase in fertilizer loss alters a key medical disability index (Activities of Daily Living) by 0.0147 (0.2 percent changes) and the number of diseases by 0.0057 for rural residents of 65 and older. This is equivalent to CNY 316 million (USD 45 million) at national medical cost. Furthermore, the age of onset is younger in regions with higher fertilizer loss. One kg/ha increase of fertilizer loss advances the age of onset by 0.267 year, which will cause long-term effect on public health. Our results are robust to a variety of robustness checks.