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Narrative Restrictions and Proxies.

Raffaella Giacomini1,2, Toru Kitagawa2,3, Matthew Read4

  • 1Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IL.

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics : a Publication of the American Statistical Association
|October 17, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

We evaluated two methods for analyzing structural shocks in vector autoregressions. Narrative restrictions offer more reliable inference than narrative proxies, especially when shock signs are known for fewer periods.

Keywords:
Impulse-response analysisPrior sensitivitySign restrictionsWeak instruments

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Area of Science:

  • Econometrics
  • Macroeconomics

Background:

  • Structural vector autoregressions (SVAR) are crucial for macroeconomic analysis.
  • Identifying structural shocks often relies on specific date information.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the efficacy of "narrative restrictions" (NR) versus "narrative proxy" (NP) methods for SVAR shock identification.
  • To assess the inferential properties of confidence intervals under each approach.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical analysis and Monte Carlo simulations.
  • Implementation of set-identified SVAR with NR.
  • Application of weak-proxy robust inference for NP.

Main Results:

  • Narrative proxy confidence intervals exhibit distorted coverage, particularly when shock sign information is sparse.
  • Prior-robust Bayesian credible intervals under narrative restrictions show coverage exceeding nominal levels, improving with more restrictions.

Conclusions:

  • Narrative restrictions provide a more robust framework for inference in SVAR models compared to narrative proxies.
  • The choice of method significantly impacts the reliability of impulse response analysis based on shock timing.