Tuberculosis incidence and its socioeconomic determi-nants: developing a parsimonious model

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading global cause of death, necessitating accurate incidence projections.
• Traditional regression models for TB incidence face challenges with multicollinearity.
• Developing parsimonious models using socioeconomic predictors is essential for unbiased TB incidence analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a parsimonious multiple linear regression model for Tuberculosis incidence.
• To identify key socioeconomic determinants influencing Tuberculosis incidence in the Karaganda region.
• To address multicollinearity in regression analysis for TB incidence prediction.

Main Methods:

• An ecological study design was employed using data from 2001-2019.
• Multiple linear regression and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were utilized.
• Socioeconomic variables were analyzed for their association with Tuberculosis incidence rates.

Main Results:

• Tuberculosis incidence in the Karaganda region declined between 2001 and 2019.
• Economic development and healthcare capacity showed a negative correlation with Tuberculosis incidence.
• A parsimonious model (y = 1442 - 454.3x1 - 211.4x2) was developed, highlighting the impact of economic development and healthcare capacity.

Conclusions:

• Economic development and healthcare capacity are significant factors in Tuberculosis incidence.
• Findings support implementing preventive measures like improving economic status and health sector capacity.
• Strengthening social protection and health expenditure are vital for Tuberculosis control.