IMMUNOLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR PREDICTING SEVERE AND COMPLICATED FORMS OF VARICELLA ZOSTER IN CHILDREN

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Infectious Diseases
• Immunology
• Clinical Diagnostics

Background:

• Varicella zoster virus (VZ) can lead to severe and complicated forms in children.
• Identifying prognostic criteria for disease severity is crucial for timely intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate immunological markers for predicting severe and complicated varicella in children.
• To establish prognostic criteria for VZ disease severity.

Main Methods:

• 120 children with VZ were studied, divided into complicated (n=63) and uncomplicated (n=57) groups.
• Assessed interferon alpha, complement components (C3, C4), anti-MAG/TGF antibodies, complete blood count, and C-reactive protein (CRP).
• Utilized binary logistic regression and 5-fold cross-validation for statistical analysis.

Main Results:

• Significant predictors of complicated VZ included elevated CRP (OR=10.05), platelets (OR=9.69), and C3 (OR=2.77).
• Reduced C4 levels (OR=0.036) were also associated with complicated disease.
• The logistic regression model demonstrated strong discriminatory ability (AUC=0.7857).

Conclusions:

• CRP, C3, C4, and platelet levels serve as valuable prognostic markers for complicated varicella in children.
• Early assessment of immune status aids in identifying at-risk patients.
• Optimizing treatment tactics is facilitated by timely risk identification.