Identifying Modifiable Cost Drivers of Outpatient Unicompartmental Knee Arthroplasty With Machine Learning

Implementing tools that identify cost-saving opportunities for ambulatory orthopaedic surgeries can improve access to value-based care. We developed and internally validated a machine learning (ML) algorithm to predict cost drivers of total charges after ambulatory unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA).

We queried the New York State Ambulatory Surgery and Services database to identify patients who underwent ambulatory, defined as <24 hours of care before discharge, elective UKA between 2014 and 2016. A total of 1,311 patients were included. The median costs after ambulatory UKA were $14,710. Patient demographics and intraoperative parameters were entered into 4 candidate ML algorithms. The most predictive model was selected following internal validation of candidate models, with conventional linear regression as a benchmark. Global variable importance and partial dependence curves were constructed to determine the impact of each input parameter on total charges.

The gradient-boosted ensemble model outperformed all candidate algorithms and conventional linear regression. The major differential cost drivers of UKA identified (in decreasing order of magnitude) were increased operating room time, length of stay, use of regional and adjunctive periarticular analgesia, utilization of computer-assisted navigation, and routinely sending resected tissue to pathology.

We developed and internally validated a supervised ML algorithm that identified operating room time, length of stay, use of computer-assisted navigation, regional primary anesthesia, adjunct periarticular analgesia, and routine surgical pathology as essential cost drivers of UKA. Following external validation, this tool may enable surgeons and health insurance providers optimize the delivery of value-based care to patients receiving outpatient UKA.

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