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Crime and Building Rehabilitation or Demolition: A Dose-Response Analysis.

Colette Smirniotis1,2, Michael Henderson3, Barbara A Bailey4

  • 1Violence Prevention Research Program, Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of California at Davis, Sacramento, CA 95817, USA.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
|October 27, 2022
PubMed
Summary

Building demolitions and rehabilitations in Cleveland did not significantly reduce crime overall. However, higher demolition levels in vacant areas and property rehabilitations in medium-vacancy areas were linked to increased crime, particularly drug offenses.

Keywords:
Bayesiancrimefirearm violenceproperty demolitionproperty rehabilitationspatiotemporal

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Area of Science:

  • Urban Criminology
  • Environmental Criminology
  • Public Health
  • Urban Planning

Background:

  • Urban blight and vacant buildings are often linked to increased crime rates.
  • Previous research suggests building demolition may reduce crime, but evidence is mixed.
  • Cleveland, Ohio, has a significant history of building demolitions and rehabilitations since the 2000s.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the dose-response relationship between building demolitions, property rehabilitations, and crime incidence in Cleveland.
  • To analyze associations for five crime types: violent crimes, firearm-involved violent crimes, drug crimes, and crimes linked to building vacancy.
  • To stratify analyses by building vacancy levels to understand contextual effects.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Bayesian spatiotemporal models to analyze crime data from 2012 to 2017.
  • Examined 569 hexagonal areas (neighborhood-sized) across Cleveland.
  • Assessed associations between varying levels of demolition/rehabilitation (dose) and crime outcomes.

Main Results:

  • Most models showed no statistically significant association between demolition/rehabilitation dose and overall crime incidence.
  • Positive associations between higher demolition levels (2+ demolitions) and crime were observed in medium-to-high vacancy areas.
  • Property rehabilitation was associated with an increase in drug crimes specifically in medium-vacancy areas.

Conclusions:

  • The impact of building demolition and rehabilitation on crime reduction is complex and context-dependent.
  • High levels of demolition in vacant areas may correlate with increased crime, contrary to some expectations.
  • Property rehabilitation may be linked to specific crime increases, such as drug offenses in certain urban settings.