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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
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Global drought trends and future projections.
Sergio M Vicente-Serrano1, Dhais Peña-Angulo2, Santiago Beguería3
1Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza 50059, Spain.
Summary
Global warming increases atmospheric evaporative demand (AED), intensifying agricultural and ecological droughts despite stable meteorological drought trends. Understanding these complex drought dynamics is crucial for climate change adaptation.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Natural Hazards
Background:
- Drought is a complex natural hazard with multiple categories (meteorological, agricultural, ecological, hydrological), making assessment difficult.
- Recent decades show a significant increase in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED).
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze trends in meteorological droughts using long-term precipitation records.
- To evaluate the role of global warming and increased AED in agricultural, hydrological, and ecological drought severity over the last four decades.
- To assess drought projections from Earth system models.
Main Methods:
- Review of recent scientific literature on drought.
- Analysis of long-term precipitation records and various drought metrics.
- Evaluation of atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) trends.
- Assessment of Earth system model projections for drought.
Main Results:
- Meteorological droughts show no substantial global changes over the last 120 years.
- Increased severity of agricultural and ecological droughts appears linked to rising AED.
- Earth system models provide insights into future drought scenarios, highlighting the need for careful metric selection and modeling approach consideration.
Conclusions:
- While meteorological drought patterns remain stable globally, rising atmospheric evaporative demand is exacerbating agricultural and ecological drought severity.
- Accurate drought assessment in a changing climate requires considering various metrics and acknowledging modeling uncertainties.
- Future drought risk evaluation must integrate these findings for effective climate change adaptation strategies.
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