A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Meteorology
• Oceanography

Background:

• Tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) events are linked to destructive landfalls and high forecast errors.
• Observed upward trends in RI exist in several ocean basins, but anthropogenic influence remains unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify a robust anthropogenic signal in global tropical cyclone intensification trends.
• To determine the physical drivers of observed intensification trends.

Main Methods:

• Comparison of multi-decadal observational datasets with high-resolution global climate model simulations.
• Analysis of trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates and environmental parameters.

Main Results:

• A significant increase in tropical cyclone intensification rates was detected globally and in multiple basins.
• Anthropogenic forcing was identified as a positive contributor to these intensification trends.
• Thermodynamic environments conducive to RI have become more favorable, with increased probability due to anthropogenic warming.

Conclusions:

• Human-caused climate change is demonstrably increasing tropical cyclone intensification rates.
• Changes in the thermodynamic environment are key physical drivers amplifying RI events.
• These findings highlight the growing threat of intense tropical cyclones under continued global warming.