Climate change in estuarine systems: Patterns and gaps using a meta-analysis approach

Area of Science:

• Estuarine ecology
• Climate change science
• Marine science

Background:

• Estuaries face climate change impacts, but understanding is limited by data scarcity.
• High dynamism and lack of extensive in situ data hinder global estuarine research.
• Contradictory global patterns necessitate robust observational evidence.

Approach:

• A meta-analysis of publications was conducted to assess in situ observational evidence of climate change in estuaries.
• A literature search focused on climate change studies within the Web of Science database.
• Analysis characterized the extent and nature of estuarine climate change research.

Key Points:

• Climate change research has grown since 2000, with marine studies comprising 9.69%.
• Estuarine climate change studies are rare (9.30% of marine studies), and those using in situ data are even fewer (1.13%).
• Reanalysis products dominate estuarine change assessments, with sea temperature being the most analyzed variable.

Conclusions:

• There is a critical need for more in situ observational data in estuarine systems.
• Establishing long-term estuarine observatories is essential for identifying climate change evidence.
• Enhanced data collection will support accurate modeling and inform effective climate change mitigation plans.