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When Type 2 Processing Misfires: The Indiscriminate Use of Statistical Thinking about Reasoning Problems.

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People often struggle to distinguish between correct and incorrect reasoning, even when presented with problems designed to test statistical judgment. This study shows that apparent conflict sensitivity doesn't guarantee sound statistical rule application.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Judgment and Decision-Making

Background:

  • Dual-process theories of judgment often use reasoning problems pitting intuitive (Type 1) against rule-based (Type 2) responses.
  • Existing tasks lack methods to differentiate adequate from inadequate rule application.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and test experimental methods for discriminating between sound and unsound rule use in judgment tasks.
  • To investigate whether participants can differentiate between genuine and spurious conflict in reasoning.

Main Methods:

  • Developed rule-inadequate versions of standard base-rate problems, rendering base rates irrelevant.
  • Conducted four experiments measuring response latencies and confidence to assess conflict sensitivity.

Main Results:

  • Participants exhibited conflict sensitivity on both standard and rule-inadequate base-rate problems.
  • Failure to discriminate between real and spurious conflict was observed across experiments.

Conclusions:

  • Participants frequently misuse statistical information, relying on irrelevant base rates.
  • Assuming sound statistical rule use based solely on correct responses to conflict problems may be misleading without controlling for reasoning biases.