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Published on: November 10, 2017
Altered cardiovascular risk pattern of LDL cholesterol in older adults
Maarten Pieter Rozing1, Rudi G J Westendorp2
1Section of General Practice and the Research Unit for General Practice.
Insights
In older adults, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is not a risk factor for cardiovascular events. Explanations include survivorship bias and reverse causation, but statin benefits in the elderly require further study.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Cardiovascular Medicine
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Elevated serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular events in middle-aged individuals.
- In contrast, LDL-C levels in older populations are not predictive of cardiovascular mortality and may appear protective.
- The reasons for this altered risk pattern in the elderly are debated, with potential roles for confounding and bias.
Approach:
- This review examines recent literature to illustrate how LDL-C loses its predictive cardiovascular risk value in old age.
- It explores three primary explanations for this phenomenon: survivorship bias, reverse causation, and effect modification.
- The discussion focuses on observational data and the implications for understanding cardiovascular risk in aging populations.
Key Points:
- Survivorship bias may explain why individuals with lower LDL-C survive to old age, skewing results.
- Reverse causation suggests that declining health in older adults may lead to lower LDL-C levels.
- Effect modification indicates that other factors may alter the relationship between LDL-C and cardiovascular risk in the elderly.
Conclusions:
- The paradoxical findings regarding LDL-C and cardiovascular mortality in older adults can be attributed to survivorship bias, reverse causation, and effect modification.
- These explanations do not negate the potential benefits of cholesterol-lowering therapies, such as statins, in older individuals.
- Placebo-controlled trials are crucial for determining which elderly populations may benefit from lipid-lowering treatments.
Purpose Of Review:
Elevated serum low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels at middle-age constitute a strong risk factor for later cardiovascular events. In older populations, however, LDL-C levels are no longer predictive of cardiovascular mortality or may even seem protective. Whether the altered risk pattern of LDL-C in old age reflects a causal mechanism or is due to confounding and bias is subject to debate. In this review, we briefly discuss the possible explanations for the altered risk pattern of LDL-C observed in old age.
Recent Findings:
Using examples from the recent literature we illustrate how LDL-C levels 'lose' their predictive value as a cardiovascular risk factor in old age. We review three potential explanations for the changed cardiovascular risk pattern of LDL-C in older populations: survivorship bias, reverse causation, and effect modification.
Summary:
The absent or protective effect of LDL-C on cardiovascular mortality in older populations found in observational studies might be explained by survivorship bias, reverse causation, and effect modification. However, this does not necessarily preclude the possibility that (specific) cholesterol-lowering treatment could decrease the risk of morbidity and mortality. Placebo-controlled trials may importantly add to our understanding of who may benefit from lipid-lowering therapy or statins at an older age.
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