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Ticks on the Run: A Mathematical Model of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF)-Key Factors for Transmission

Suman Bhowmick1,2, Khushal Khan Kasi1, Jörn Gethmann1

  • 1Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Institute of Epidemiology, 17493 Greifswald, Germany.

Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 23, 2022
PubMed

Insights

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne zoonotic disease. Reducing tick survival time is key to controlling CCHF transmission, according to a new mathematical model.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology and Public Health
  • Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases
  • Veterinary Entomology

Background:

  • Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a severe zoonotic disease caused by the CCHFV, transmitted primarily by *Hyalomma* ticks.
  • The virus circulates in a vertebrate-tick-vertebrate cycle, endemic across Asia, Africa, Southeastern Europe, and the Middle East, posing a significant public health risk due to its high fatality rate.
  • Climate change and the identification of potential vectors in Central Europe indicate a growing risk of CCHF establishment in new regions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a mathematical model simulating the transmission dynamics of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV).
  • To identify key parameters influencing CCHF spread and evaluate potential control strategies.
  • To analyze country-specific disease parameters for tailored intervention planning.

Main Methods:

  • A compartment-based nonlinear Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) system was developed to model the CCHF transmission cycle involving ticks, livestock, and humans.
  • Sensitivity analysis was performed on the basic reproduction number (R0) to determine critical control factors.
  • Model dynamics were calibrated using empirical data from multi-country analyses.

Main Results:

  • Sensitivity analysis indicated that decreasing tick survival time is a highly effective strategy for controlling CCHF transmission.
  • Tick-to-tick transmission (co-feeding) and virus circulation via transstadial and transovarial routes are crucial for sustaining the disease cycle.
  • Multi-country analysis revealed significant differences in CCHF disease-parameter sets across various endemic regions.

Conclusions:

  • The mathematical model provides valuable insights into CCHF transmission dynamics and the impact of different parameters on disease spread.
  • Reducing tick survival is a critical intervention for managing CCHF.
  • Understanding country-specific epidemiological parameters is essential for developing targeted and efficient CCHF control strategies.

Keywords:
CCHFVHyalommaODEsensitivity analysistargeted controltick borne disease

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