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How Will the Global Food Landscape Accommodate Developing Countries' Dietary Change under Urbanization?
Yali Zhang1,2, Saiya Li1,2, Lu Jin3
1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
Foods (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 26, 2022
Summary
Urbanization in developing countries drives a shift towards animal-based diets. Global food production and trade will expand by 2030 to meet these dietary changes, especially in populous nations.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Economics
- Global Food Systems
- Development Studies
Background:
- Urbanization is accelerating dietary shifts in developing nations towards animal-derived foods.
- The global food system's capacity to adapt to these dietary changes requires investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the future global food landscape under a 2030 urbanization scenario.
- To analyze the impact of dietary shifts in developing countries on global food production and trade.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model.
- Simulated a 2030 urbanization scenario for key developing countries (China, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar).
Main Results:
- Global output of fish, meat, and dairy projected to increase by 0.26-2.85% by 2030.
- Global trade volume for these products expected to expand by 2.10-13.95%.
- Developing countries show an expanding net-import tendency, with centralized exports and decentralized imports.
Conclusions:
- Asia and America must enhance global food production share to meet rising demand.
- Africa is emerging as a significant growing force in global food production.
- Globalized food trade patterns will adapt, with developing nations increasingly relying on imports.
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