Forecasting Food Innovations with a Delphi Study

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Food Science
• Nutrition Science

Background:

• Food innovations offer opportunities for novel nutritious foods, enhanced agricultural sustainability, and increased agri-food industry profits.
• Defining and forecasting food innovations is crucial for strategic development and investment within the agri-food sector.

Purpose of the Study:

• To establish a consensus definition of food innovations.
• To forecast key food innovations expected to reach consumers within the next five years.

Main Methods:

• A Delphi study involving thirteen experts from the US and UK across agriculture, nutrition, public health, agri-food industry, and food policy.
• Experts were selected via snowball sampling, and the study followed Rand Corporation's implementation and data analysis guidelines.
• Three rounds of expert consultation were conducted to reach consensus on the definition and forecast of food innovations.

Main Results:

• A consensus definition of food innovations was achieved: 'food innovations aid in the development, production, or transportation of new food products, processes, or technology to promote human health, food security, or environmental sustainability' (76.9% agreement).
• Twelve specific food innovations were identified and ranked by expert consensus (over 69% agreement), including plant-based meat alternatives, personalized nutrition, natural foods, and regenerative agriculture.
• Other forecasted innovations include new genetically modified organisms, urban agriculture, packing innovations, alternative flours, shelf-life improvement, supply chain technologies, improved soil health, and traceability technology.

Conclusions:

• The consensus definition and identified innovations provide a framework for connecting the agricultural value chain.
• These findings can guide the development of novel nutritious foods and enhance agricultural sustainability.
• Agri-food stakeholders can leverage this research to advance food innovation development and targeted research efforts.