U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Climate extremes, particularly compound events, significantly reduce winter wheat yields.
• Simultaneous extreme weather events have greater impacts than isolated ones.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the increasing frequency of compound hot-dry-windy (HDW) events in the U.S. Great Plains.
• To quantify the impact of HDW events on winter wheat yield loss.
• To investigate the atmospheric drivers of HDW events and their link to climate oscillations.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of historical climate data (1982-2020) for the U.S. Great Plains.
• Statistical modeling to correlate HDW event duration with winter wheat yield reduction.
• Investigation of atmospheric teleconnections, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Main Results:

• Compound HDW events significantly increased in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020.
• HDW events accounted for a 4% yield reduction per 10 hours during critical growth stages.
• Yield reduction rates reached up to 0.09 t ha^-1 per decade, linked to HDW variations and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Conclusions:

• Compound HDW events are a critical, overlooked driver of winter wheat yield loss.
• These events create a spatially distributed "yield shock," with potential parallels to the Dust Bowl era.
• Findings have significant implications for U.S. winter wheat production and climate change risk assessment.