Rapid urbanization is associated with pronounced intensification of extreme precipitation

Against the backdrop of global urbanization, urban areas are increasingly exposed to heightened climate risks, among which the intensification of extreme precipitation has become a major global concern. However, how extreme precipitation amount varies across different urban development patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we analyze 9227 cities from 2000 to 2019, integrating high-resolution impervious surface, MODIS vegetation index, precipitation, and climate datasets. Cities are classified based on the co-evolution of impervious surface fraction and vegetation index, capturing dynamic urban development patterns. Our results show that extreme precipitation amount increased across all urban development patterns (99.3 mm/10a), with the most pronounced intensification occurring in cities undergoing rapid impervious surface expansion accompanied by substantial vegetation loss (135.4 mm/10a). Regression-based attribution and Shapley decomposition further reveal that, while large-scale climate variability provides a background increasing trend, the heterogeneity of extreme precipitation intensification is modulated by divergent urban development trajectories, with impervious surface and vegetation changes jointly explaining approximately 8% of the explained variance. These findings demonstrate that distinct urban development patterns play a critical role in shaping the magnitude of extreme precipitation changes, beyond the background influence of climate variability. This study provides an analytical framework for understanding how urbanization trajectories influence extreme precipitation amount and offers insights for urban climate adaptation and risk-informed management under continued urban expansion.