Post-colonoscopy cancer rate at a tertiary referral hospital in Australia: A data linkage analysis

Colorectal cancer (CRC) diagnosed following a cancer-negative colonoscopy is termed as post-colonoscopy CRC (PCCRC). The World Endoscopy Organization has recently standardized the definition of PCCRC-3Y (CRC developing within 3 years of a cancer-negative colonoscopy). In the present study, we sought to assess PCCRC-3Y rate, perform root-cause analyses, and identify factors associated with development of PCCRC at a tertiary referral hospital in Australia.

All patients undergoing colonoscopy from 2011 to 2018 were matched to a population-based cancer register. PCCRC-3Y rate was assessed for years 2011-2015. All PCCRC cases that developed within 6-48 months after a cancer-negative colonoscopy underwent root-cause analyses. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize data.

Among 17 828 patients undergoing colonoscopy, 367 CRC cases were diagnosed during the study period. This included nine PCCRC cases, which developed at a median of 14 months (range 7-34 months) after cancer-negative colonoscopy. The PCCRC-3Y rate for years 2011-2015 was 2.16% (95% CI 0.91-5.15). All nine PCCRC cases were moderately or poorly differentiated adenocarcinomas; seven of nine were early-stage CRC (stages I and II) and six of nine probably represented missed lesions at index colonoscopy despite an apparently adequate examination. History of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) (odds ratio [OR] 21.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6-103.7, P < 0.001) and diverticulosis (OR 5.4, 95% CI 1.4-20.5, P = 0.01) were significantly associated with development of missed CRC.

In our tertiary referral colonoscopy cohort, PCCRC-3Y rate was 2.16% (95% CI 0.91-5.15). IBD and diverticulosis were significantly associated with risk of PCCRC. The majority of PCCRC lesions were likely missed at index colonoscopy, despite an apparently adequate examination.