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Updated: Aug 19, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
External Validation of the COVID-NoLab and COVID-SimpleLab Prognostic Tools
Mark H Ebell1, Robert P Lennon2, Derjung M Tarn3
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia ebell@uga.edu.
Abstract:
Our objective was to externally validate 2 simple risk scores for mortality among a mostly inpatient population with COVID-19 in Canada (588 patients for COVID-NoLab and 479 patients for COVID-SimpleLab). The mortality rates in the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for COVID-NoLab were 1.1%, 9.6%, and 21.2%, respectively. The mortality rates for COVID-SimpleLab were 0.0%, 9.8%, and 20.0%, respectively. These values were similar to those in the original derivation cohort. The 2 simple risk scores, now successfully externally validated, offer clinicians a reliable way to quickly identify low-risk inpatients who could potentially be managed as outpatients in the event of a bed shortage. Both are available online (https://ebell-projects.shinyapps.io/covid_nolab/ and https://ebell-projects.shinyapps.io/COVID-SimpleLab/).
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