Extending floating catchment area methods to estimate future hospital bed capacity requirements

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Spatial Analysis
• Healthcare Planning

Background:

• North-west Sydney faces significant population growth, necessitating new healthcare infrastructure.
• The exact capacity of emergency department beds/treatment spaces (EDBs) for a new hospital is undetermined.
• Traditional healthcare planning often overlooks population distribution and travel time.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the required number of EDBs for a new hospital in north-west Sydney.
• To apply spatial accessibility and equity metrics for healthcare capacity planning.
• To develop a novel method for determining future healthcare service capacity based on population growth.

Main Methods:

• Floating catchment area (FCA) methods were employed to assess spatial accessibility.
• Spatial equity, specifically horizontal spatial equity, was calculated using predicted population data (2021 and 2036).
• Mathematical optimization was utilized to determine the most efficient distribution of EDBs across the region.

Main Results:

• The study identified an optimal allocation of EDBs that enhances average spatial accessibility.
• The proposed allocation simultaneously improves spatial equity compared to 2021 metrics.
• A novel method for capacity planning considering population growth and spatial factors was demonstrated.

Conclusions:

• The FCA method provides a robust framework for healthcare capacity planning in rapidly growing regions.
• This approach offers a more accurate and equitable distribution of healthcare resources than traditional methods.
• The findings support evidence-based planning for new healthcare facilities to meet future population needs.