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Shipping costs and inflation
Yan Carrière-Swallow1, Pragyan Deb1, Davide Furceri1,2
1International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street NW, 20431 Washington, DC, United States.
Journal of International Money and Finance
|December 5, 2022
Summary
Global shipping costs, measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), significantly increase domestic prices and inflation. These effects are more persistent than oil shocks and vary by country
Area of Science:
- Economics
- International Trade
- Macroeconomics
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted global supply chains, causing shipment delays and escalating shipping costs.
- Understanding the pass-through of shipping costs to domestic prices is crucial for economic stability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of global shipping costs, proxied by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), on domestic prices and inflation.
- To analyze the persistence and magnitude of shipping cost shocks compared to other commodity price shocks.
- To examine how country-specific factors influence the transmission of shipping costs.
Main Methods:
- Econometric analysis of a large panel of countries from 1992 to 2021.
- Utilized the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) as a measure of global shipping costs.
- Employed an instrumental variable approach, using Suez Canal closures as an instrument for shipping costs.
Main Results:
- Spikes in the BDI lead to significant increases in import prices, producer price index (PPI), headline, and core inflation.
- Inflation expectations also rise following increases in the BDI.
- The impact of shipping costs is comparable in magnitude but more persistent than shocks to global oil and food prices.
Conclusions:
- Global shipping costs are a significant driver of domestic inflation and inflation expectations.
- The inflationary impact is more pronounced in countries with a higher import share and less effective inflation control regimes.
- Policy implications include considering supply chain resilience and anchoring inflation expectations to mitigate shipping cost shocks.
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