Did the COVID-19 vaccine rollout impact transportation demand? A case study in New York City

This study investigates the influence of vaccination along with other pandemic-related factors on driving, transit, and walking in New York City (NYC). The results of this study help inform policymakers of the weight of their decisions in a pandemic setting as well as factors to consider when modeling transportation during a pandemic.

In this study, ARIMAX time series analysis was performed on driving, transit, and walking data from Apple Mobility Trends Reports. The data was segmented into two categories "pre-vaccine" and post-vaccine" for both Manhattan and Brooklyn. The independent variables were primarily COVID-19 statistics (vaccination, case counts, deaths, etc.) along with additional predictors aggregated from Google Community Mobility Reports, Google Trends, Citi Bike, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT).

Vaccination led to increases in driving, transit, and walking in Brooklyn but was not as statistically significant in Manhattan (the only effect being on walking trips). Despite this, vaccination was not the strongest influencer on transportation. The COVID-19 policy score variable had the highest standardized β in nearly every model, indicating that stricter lockdown policies were the main factor discouraging travel. Furthermore, the lifting of these policies contributed to increases in travel numbers more than vaccination.

In the event of future pandemics or health crises, NYC policymakers should be aware that they play a significant role in mitigating infectious diseases. The public is seemingly more responsive to policy than anything else. Similar studies should be conducted in other cities as the public response may vary based on other factors.