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Partisan Stability During Turbulent Times: Evidence from Three American Panel Surveys
Donald P Green1, Paul Platzman1
1Department of Political Science, Columbia University, 7th Floor, International Affairs Building 410 W. 116th Street, New York, NY 10027 USA.
Political Behavior
|December 5, 2022
Summary
Party identification in American politics remains surprisingly stable over short periods, despite increased polarization. However, individual-level partisan change accumulates over a voter's lifespan, suggesting long-term shifts in party affiliation.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- American Politics
- Survey Research
Background:
- Recent decades show significant shifts in American party politics, characterized by rising affective polarization and residential segregation.
- These trends prompt questions about the stability and evolution of individual party identification among voters.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the stability of party identification in the United States.
- To differentiate genuine partisan change from potential response errors in survey data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized three multi-wave panel surveys spanning the Obama and Trump administrations (2011-2020).
- Employed various statistical techniques to analyze changes in party identification.
- Compared contemporary findings with historical panel survey data dating back to the 1950s.
Main Results:
- The rate of partisan change between 2011 and 2020 is comparable to historical rates observed in earlier decades.
- Individual party identification demonstrates considerable short-term stability, with few respondents showing significant change.
- Despite short-term stability, the cumulative pace of change suggests significant shifts in partisanship are common over a voter's lifetime.
Conclusions:
- Party identification exhibits a high degree of stability in the short term, even amidst heightened political polarization.
- Longitudinal analysis reveals that while individual changes are infrequent, the aggregate effect over a lifespan can lead to substantial shifts in party affiliation.
- Findings challenge assumptions of rapid partisan realignment and highlight the enduring nature of individual political identity across different political eras.
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