Performance sensitivity analysis of brain metastasis stereotactic radiosurgery outcome prediction using MRI radiomics

Recent studies have used T1w contrast-enhanced (T1w-CE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomic features and machine learning to predict post-stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) brain metastasis (BM) progression, but have not examined the effects of combining clinical and radiomic features, BM primary cancer, BM volume effects, and using multiple scanner models. To investigate these effects, a dataset of n = 123 BMs from 99 SRS patients with 12 clinical features, 107 pre-treatment T1w-CE radiomic features, and BM progression determined by follow-up MRI was used with a random decision forest model and 250 bootstrapped repetitions. Repeat experiments assessed the relative accuracy across primary cancer sites, BM volume groups, and scanner model pairings. Correction for accuracy imbalances across volume groups was investigated by removing volume-correlated features. We found that using clinical and radiomic features together produced the most accurate model with a bootstrap-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77. Accuracy also varied by primary cancer site, BM volume, and scanner model pairings. The effect of BM volume was eliminated by removing features at a volume-correlation coefficient threshold of 0.25. These results show that feature type, primary cancer, volume, and scanner model are all critical factors in the accuracy of radiomics-based prognostic models for BM SRS that must be characterised and controlled for before clinical translation.