Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950

Area of Science:

• Forestry science
• Ecology
• Environmental science

Background:

• European forests are under increasing pressure from natural disturbances.
• Shifts in disturbance regimes threaten forest functioning and ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation.
• A lack of long-term empirical data hinders understanding and adaptive management of forest disturbances.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a unique database of >170,000 ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests (1950-2019).
• To analyze trends in forest disturbance dynamics and their impacts.
• To inform adaptive management strategies and policy debates.

Main Methods:

• Compilation of a comprehensive database of >170,000 forest disturbance records from 1950-2019 across 34 European countries.
• Statistical analysis of disturbance trends and agents (wind, fire, bark beetles).
• Application of machine learning to estimate unreported disturbance volumes.

Main Results:

• A significant increase in forest disturbance was confirmed across Europe.
• Average annual disturbed timber volume was 43.8 million m³; unreported disturbances estimated at 8.6-18.3 million m³/year.
• Wind, fire, and bark beetles were the primary agents, with bark beetle damage doubling in the last 20 years.

Conclusions:

• Forest disturbances significantly impact ecosystem services, resource provisioning, and timber markets.
• Adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be central to European forest policy.
• A coherent, homogeneous monitoring system for natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe.