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Voluntary vaccination may not stop monkeypox outbreak: A game-theoretic model.

Ian B Augsburger1, Grace K Galanthay2, Jacob H Tarosky3

  • 1Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.

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This summary is machine-generated.

Individual cost-benefit analyses may not prevent monkeypox (MPX) outbreaks, as "not vaccinating" is often optimal. Without mandated vaccination rates, populations may revert to unvaccinated states, risking endemic MPX spread.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Game Theory
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Monkeypox (MPX) is a viral zoonotic disease historically endemic to Africa.
  • In 2022, MPX rapidly spread globally to nearly 60 countries.
  • Smallpox vaccines offer approximately 85% protection against MPX.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze whether mandatory vaccination or voluntary vaccination is sufficient to control the MPX outbreak.
  • To model individual vaccination decisions using a game-theoretical framework.
  • To determine optimal vaccination strategies considering individual benefits and costs.

Main Methods:

  • Incorporation of a standard SVEIR compartmental model for MPX transmission.
  • Application of a game-theoretical framework to study vaccination decisions.
  • Analysis of Nash equilibria to predict individual vaccination rates without intervention.

Main Results:

  • Without vaccination, MPX risks becoming endemic in non-endemic regions, including the United States.
  • From an individual perspective, choosing not to vaccinate is frequently the optimal strategy.
  • Multiple equilibria exist, with some exhibiting backward bifurcation, indicating potential reversion to low vaccination rates.

Conclusions:

  • Individual decision-making may not lead to sufficient vaccination coverage to halt MPX spread.
  • A centrally mandated minimum vaccination rate is crucial to prevent a return to unvaccinated scenarios.
  • Game theory highlights the necessity of public health interventions to ensure population-level immunity against MPX.