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Economic analysis through alternative data and big data techniques: what do they tell about Brazil?

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Alternative data from Google Trends and Mobility reveal economic insights in Brazil. Internet search trends correlate with higher household income, while mobility changes impact COVID-19 rates and economic indicators.

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Data Science
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Alternative data are increasingly used globally but underutilized in Brazilian economic studies.
  • Google Trends and Google Mobility offer novel data sources for economic analysis.
  • Understanding the economic implications of online behavior and mobility patterns is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate the utility of alternative data from Google Trends and Google Mobility for innovative economic analysis in Brazil.
  • To identify new economic indicators derived from alternative data.
  • To assess the correlation between internet search behavior and economic development.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of Google Trends data to correlate search terms related to the future with average household income across Brazilian states.
  • Utilizing Google Mobility data to examine the impact of reduced mobility in retail/recreation areas on public health and economic indicators.
  • Comparative analysis of economic outcomes based on varying levels of mobility reduction.

Main Results:

  • A significant positive correlation (R=0.62) was found between internet searches for "the future" and average household income in Brazilian states.
  • States with higher "future" search interest exhibit 1.6 times higher average household income.
  • Reduced mobility in retail/recreation areas was associated with higher COVID-19 infection and death rates, and lower impacts on unemployment, GDP degrowth, and inflation.

Conclusions:

  • Alternative data, specifically Google Trends and Mobility, provide valuable, innovative indicators for economic analysis in Brazil.
  • Internet search behavior is a quantifiable indicator of economic development potential.
  • Mobility patterns significantly influence public health outcomes and economic stability during crises.