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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
13:04

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods

Published on: September 19, 2012

Variations on a theme by Rachlin: Probability discounting.

Peter R Killeen1

  • 1Arizona State University.

Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior
|December 20, 2022
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study critiques the equivalence of probabilistic and delayed goods discounting, proposing a new model. The research introduces a conjoint measurement approach to better understand probability discounting in intertemporal choice.

Keywords:
additive utility theorydelay discountingprobability discountingsubjective probabilityutility

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral Economics
  • Decision Science
  • Cognitive Psychology

Background:

  • Previous research treated discounting of probabilistic goods as equivalent to discounting of delayed goods.
  • This approach, while influential, has been identified as problematic in its original formulation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically evaluate the established framework for probabilistic goods discounting.
  • To develop and validate a more accurate model for understanding probability discounting in intertemporal choice.

Main Methods:

  • The study re-examines the conversion of probability to delay, identifying the omission of trial duration.
  • It employs conjoint measurement, treating discounting as a psychophysical matching experiment.
  • A model is proposed where utility of amount is multiplied by the weight of probability.

Main Results:

  • The proposed model, incorporating a logarithmic transform for amount and a Prelec function for probability, accurately accounts for diverse probability discounting data.
  • Empirical evidence suggests probability and delay discounting are distinct, differing in their functional relationships with variables like outcome magnitude.

Conclusions:

  • The findings challenge the direct subsumption of probability discounting under delay discounting.
  • A refined model offers a parsimonious and effective account of probabilistic intertemporal choice.
  • Integrating this probabilistic model with delay discounting theory provides a comprehensive framework for intertemporal decision-making.