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Updated: Aug 16, 2025

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
[The essential changes of demographic processes in the Vologda Oblast]
D V Vankov1, M A Ivanova2, T A Socolovskaya2
1The Budget Health Care Institution of the Vologda Oblast "The Vologda Oblast Clinical Hospital".
Abstract:
The demographic situation is one of markers of well-being of society. The purpose of the study was to establish main trends in demographic process in the Vologda Oblast. The Rosstat data on the Vologda Oblast for 2008-2019 were analyzed using analytical, parametric and non-parametric statistics, descriptive statistics and prognostic estimate, calculation of intensive and extensive indicators. It is demonstrated that demographic situation in the Vologda Oblast is characterized by decreasing of fertility coefficient (-20.0%) and increasing of negative natural growth of population. In rural areas, at low fertility, high mortality of population is registered and its related mostly to suicides. The relationship of random drowning with suicides and murders (R = +0.66 and R = +0.78, respectively), random alcohol poisoning with suicides (R = +0.57) and suicides with murders (R = +0.76) is established. The strong feedback between murder and random alcohol poisoning was revealed too.
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