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Risk of paediatric multisystem inflammatory syndrome (PIMS-TS) during the SARS-CoV-2 alpha and delta variant waves:

Joseph Shingleton1,2, Lucy Burton1,2, Hannah E Williams1,2

  • 1Emergency Preparedness Response and Resilience Directorate, UK Health Security Agency, Porton Down, London, United Kingdom.

Frontiers in Pediatrics
|December 22, 2022
PubMed

Insights

A predictive model accurately forecast Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) cases post-SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Alpha wave. However, PIMS-TS cases were significantly lower than predicted during the Delta wave, indicating a reduced risk in children and young people.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Pediatrics

Background:

  • Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare but severe complication following SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP).
  • Understanding the incidence and risk factors for PIMS-TS is crucial for public health management during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive model for PIMS-TS cases in CYP using national and regional COVID-19 pandemic data in England.
  • To estimate the risk of PIMS-TS following SARS-CoV-2 infection across different pandemic waves.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized national and regional data from England's COVID-19 pandemic waves.
  • Estimated SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP (aged 0-15) using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model.
  • Identified PIMS-TS cases through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit and Secondary Uses Services (SUS) data.

Main Results:

  • The predictive model accurately forecasted PIMS-TS cases during the Alpha wave (506 predicted vs. 502 observed), with a median estimated risk of 0.038%.
  • During the Delta wave, the median risk of PIMS-TS was significantly lower (0.026%), with observed cases (212) being 53% fewer than predicted (450).

Conclusions:

  • The developed model demonstrated accuracy in predicting PIMS-TS cases during the Alpha variant wave.
  • A notable decrease in PIMS-TS incidence was observed during the Delta variant wave compared to predictions, necessitating further research into underlying mechanisms.
Abstract

Keywords:
COVID-19PIMS-TSSARS-COV-2 delta variantSARS-CoV-2SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant

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