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Updated: Aug 16, 2025

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Published on: June 7, 2024
A nomogram for predicting upper urinary tract damage risk in children with neurogenic bladder
Qi Li1,2, Miao Cai1,2, Qingsong Pu3
1Department of Urology, Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China.
A new predictive model helps identify children with neurogenic bladder (NB) at risk for upper urinary tract damage (UUTD). This tool aids in early assessment and management of NB complications.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Urology
- Nephrology
- Medical Informatics
Background:
- Neurogenic bladder (NB) in children can lead to serious upper urinary tract damage (UUTD).
- Predictive tools are needed to identify children at high risk for UUTD progression.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a predictive model (nomogram) for upper urinary tract damage (UUTD) in pediatric patients with neurogenic bladder (NB).
Main Methods:
- Retrospective study with training (167 patients) and validation (100 patients) cohorts.
- Logistic regression analysis identified predictors: recurrent UTIs, bladder compliance, detrusor leak point pressure, overactive bladder, and clean intermittent catheterization.
- Model efficacy assessed using ROC curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.
Main Results:
- The nomogram demonstrated good predictive accuracy (AUC 0.806 in training, 0.831 in validation).
- Calibration curves confirmed good agreement between predicted and observed UUTD risk.
- Decision curve analysis supported the nomogram's clinical utility.
Conclusions:
- An effective nomogram incorporating five clinical factors was developed to assess UUTD risk in children with NB.
- This tool can be conveniently applied for early risk stratification and management of NB patients.
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