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Age, GFR, and Ejection Fraction Score as a Good Predictor of Prognosis in Elderly Patients with Nonischemic Dilated

Xinyi Li1, Anhong Huang2, Xiaonan Zhang1

  • 1Guangdong Provincial Geriatrics Institute, Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China.

Gerontology
|December 28, 2022
PubMed

Insights

The new AGEF score effectively predicts mortality in elderly patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM). A score of 2.50 or lower indicates a better long-term prognosis, simplifying risk assessment.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Medical Prognostics
  • Geriatric Medicine

Background:

  • Nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) presents a significant risk of sudden cardiac death, even with treatment.
  • Existing predictive scores like Selvester QRS and ESTIMATED are complex and have many variables.
  • A simpler, accurate prognostic tool is needed for clinical practice in NIDCM patients.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a simple predictive score for assessing prognosis in elderly patients with NIDCM.
  • To evaluate the efficacy of the AGEF score in predicting in-hospital and long-term mortality.

Main Methods:

  • A cohort of 953 elderly patients (age ≥60) with NIDCM was studied retrospectively (January 2010 - December 2019).
  • Statistical analyses included univariate logistic regression, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis.
  • The AGEF score's predictive performance for in-hospital and long-term outcomes was assessed.

Main Results:

  • The AGEF score was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality (OR: 1.828, p < 0.001).
  • ROC analysis demonstrated the AGEF score's excellent predictive capability for clinical outcomes (AUC = 0.743, p < 0.001).
  • An AGEF score ≤2.50 was identified as optimal for predicting better long-term survival (HR: 0.405, p < 0.001), indicating a lower risk of mortality.

Conclusions:

  • The AGEF score serves as a simple and effective tool for risk stratification in elderly NIDCM patients.
  • This score can aid clinicians in assessing prognosis and guiding treatment decisions.
  • Further validation in diverse populations may enhance its clinical utility.
Abstract

Keywords:
AGEF scoreCardiovascular diseaseClinical outcomesElderly patientsNonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy

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