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Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy.

Amy Hurford1, Maria M Martignoni2, J Concepción Loredo-Osti2

  • 1Memorial University of Newfoundland, Department of Biology, St. John's, NL A1C 5S7, Canada; Memorial University of Newfoundland, Mathematics and Statistics Department, St. John's, NL A1C 5S7, Canada.

Journal of Theoretical Biology
|December 30, 2022
PubMed
Summary

New epidemiological models help regions with COVID-19 elimination strategies manage risks from imported cases and relax restrictions safely as vaccination increases. This research informs pandemic response planning.

Keywords:
Atlantic CanadaCOVID-19COVID-zeroEliminationImportationsPandemic preparednessReopeningSARS-CoV-2Travel-related

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Some countries and regions successfully used COVID-19 elimination strategies with strict border controls.
  • Travel-related cases dominated in Atlantic Canada (Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island) from July 2020 to May 2021.
  • Existing epidemiological models are insufficient for regions with elimination strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To adapt importation modeling for regions employing COVID-19 elimination strategies.
  • To assess the impact of interventions on imported cases and community spillovers.
  • To develop a framework for evaluating the relaxation of public health restrictions.

Main Methods:

  • Extended importation modeling to include post-arrival travel restrictions and local interventions.
  • Analyzed expected daily spillovers, including the impact of the Omicron variant.
  • Developed a method to characterize potential community outbreaks and applied it to a specific region.

Main Results:

  • Expected daily spillovers significantly increased with the Omicron variant, surpassing previous pandemic highs.
  • By December 24, 2021, expected spillovers were 44% higher than the previous peak.
  • The study predicted the effect of variants and vaccination on hypothetical outbreak sizes.

Conclusions:

  • The developed methodology can assess risks in elimination strategy regions.
  • It provides a tool to evaluate plans for safely relaxing restrictions with high vaccination coverage.
  • This research supports preparedness for future pandemics.