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Deterministic and Stochastic Infection Dynamics in a Population Subject to Stress.

Clotilde Djuikem1, Julien Arino2

  • 1Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Clotilde.Djuikem@umanitoba.ca.

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|June 5, 2026
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Physiological stress in aquatic animals impacts disease spread. While the basic reproduction number predicts eradication, outbreak risk depends on initial host stress levels and pathogen introduction timing.

Keywords:
Branching processDissolve oxygenModellingStabilityStress index

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Epidemiology
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Physiological stress significantly influences disease susceptibility in aquatic organisms.
  • Water quality fluctuations dynamically affect host vulnerability to pathogens.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a stress-structured epidemiological model for aquatic environments.
  • To investigate the role of host physiological stress and water quality on disease dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a mathematical model incorporating host stress levels.
  • Employed analytical methods to determine epidemiological thresholds.
  • Utilized stochastic analysis to explore outbreak probabilities.

Main Results:

  • Confirmed that the basic reproduction number (R 0) is a valid threshold for disease eradication.
  • Identified that stochastic factors, not captured by deterministic models, influence outbreak probability.
  • Demonstrated that pathogen introduction into stressed populations results in faster disease growth compared to unstressed populations.

Conclusions:

  • Host physiological state and environmental conditions are critical factors in aquatic disease epidemiology.
  • Stochastic effects and timing of pathogen introduction are crucial for predicting disease outbreaks, complementing deterministic thresholds.