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Transmission of Multiple Pathogens Across Species
Clotilde Djuikem1, Julien Arino2
1University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada. clotilde.djuikem@umanitoba.ca.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|May 28, 2025
Summary
This study models pathogen spread across species using branching processes to predict disease outbreaks. Findings are validated computationally and analytically for aquatic environments.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Ecology
Background:
- Understanding pathogen transmission dynamics is crucial for predicting and controlling disease outbreaks.
- Multispecies interactions significantly influence disease propagation.
- Aquatic ecosystems present unique challenges for studying disease spread due to complex environmental factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and analyze a mathematical model for pathogen propagation across multiple host species.
- To utilize branching process approximations for calculating the probability of disease outbreaks.
- To investigate specific scenarios involving two host species and one or two pathogens in aquatic environments.
Main Methods:
- Development of a mathematical model for inter-species pathogen transmission.
- Application of branching process approximation for outbreak probability calculation.
- Analytical and computational analysis of simplified aquatic ecosystem models.
Main Results:
- The model successfully describes pathogen propagation within and between species.
- Branching process approximation provides a viable method for estimating outbreak probabilities.
- Specific aquatic scenarios with two hosts and one or two pathogens were analyzed.
Conclusions:
- The developed model offers a framework for understanding complex disease spread.
- Branching process approximations are effective tools for epidemiological modeling.
- The study provides insights into pathogen dynamics in simplified aquatic environments.
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