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Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
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Ice Sheet and Climate Processes Driving the Uncertainty in Projections of Future Sea Level Rise: Findings From a
J L Bamber1,2, M Oppenheimer3, R E Kopp4
1School of Geographical Sciences University of Bristol Bristol UK.
Earth'S Future
|January 2, 2023
Summary
Future sea level rise from Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets is uncertain. For the 21st century, Greenland surface melt and West Antarctic ice dynamics are key drivers. Beyond 2100, East Antarctic ice dynamics become dominant under high warming scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Glaciology
- Climate Science
- Sea Level Rise Research
Background:
- Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets are major contributors to future sea level rise.
- Uncertainty in projections stems from limited observations, process understanding, and model boundary conditions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify dominant drivers of uncertainty in ice sheet projections.
- To assess the relative importance of these drivers based on ice sheet and time.
Main Methods:
- Structured expert judgment study.
- Interrogation of study findings to pinpoint uncertainty drivers.
Main Results:
- 21st Century: Greenland surface melting (albedo effects) and West Antarctic ice dynamics (ice shelf buttressing) dominate uncertainty.
- Beyond 2100 (5°C warming): East Antarctic ice dynamics (ice flow instabilities) become the primary uncertainty driver.
Conclusions:
- Key processes influencing ice sheet projections identified.
- Future modeling and observational efforts should focus on reducing uncertainties in these critical areas.
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