A new approach to chemicals warehouse risk analysis using computational fluid dynamics simulation and fuzzy Bayesian...

Area of Science:

• Risk Assessment
• Chemical Engineering
• Safety Science

Background:

• Chemical warehouses pose significant safety risks due to potential spills and fires.
• Accurate risk assessment is crucial for preventing accidents and domino effects.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply an integrated methodology for dynamic risk assessment (DRA) in chemical warehouses.
• To evaluate the consequences of pool fire scenarios using computational fluid dynamics (CFD).

Main Methods:

• Combined Bow-Tie (BT), fuzzy set theory (FST), and Bayesian networks (BNs) for risk analysis.
• Utilized CFD code, specifically Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) with the Solid Flame Model (SFM), for heat flux evaluation.
• Estimated basic event probabilities using FST and variable interactions using BNs.

Main Results:

• Forklift brake system failure identified as the primary cause of chemical spills.
• CFD analysis indicated heat flux of 31 kW/m² at 3.5m, decreasing to 6.5 kW/m² at 6.5m.
• Predicted safety distances varied: CFD suggested 4m for >12.5 kW/m², SFM suggested 4.5m.

Conclusions:

• The integrated framework provides a robust method for consequence analysis and DRA in chemical warehouses.
• Posterior risk assessments indicated a higher risk than initial estimations.
• The methodology can aid in preventing accidents and mitigating domino effects in chemical storage facilities.