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01:18Steps in Outbreak Investigation
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01:21Causality in Epidemiology
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00:59Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error
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00:59Uncertainty: Overview
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01:10Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error
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00:54Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals
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Related Experiment Video
Updated: Aug 15, 2025
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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations
Published on: September 16, 2015
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Epidemic responses under uncertainty.
Michael Barnett1, Greg Buchak2, Constantine Yannelis3
1W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287.
Summary
Policymakers implement stricter quarantines when pandemic severity is uncertain, but less stringent ones when economic costs are unclear. Overall, uncertainty aversion leads to stronger public health interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Macroeconomics
- Public Policy
Background:
- Pandemics present significant uncertainty regarding epidemiological and economic factors.
- Policymakers face complex decisions balancing public health and economic stability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze how uncertainty influences policy responses to pandemics.
- To model the impact of uncertainty on mitigation strategies like quarantines.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing a macroeconomic SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model.
- Embedding the SIR model within a robust control framework to handle uncertainty.
Main Results:
- Uncertainty in disease virulence and severity correlates with stricter, longer quarantines.
- Uncertainty regarding economic mitigation costs leads to less stringent quarantine measures.
- An uncertainty-averse decision-maker opts for more robust mitigation strategies.
Conclusions:
- The potential for severe, irreversible loss of life outweighs the temporary economic costs of stringent measures.
- Uncertainty aversion is a key driver for adopting more aggressive pandemic control policies.