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Passenger flow analysis and emergency response simulation in a metro network using virus transmission model
Yuyang Zhou1,2,3, Shuyan Zheng1, Feng Feng4
1Beijing Key Laboratory of Traffic Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, China.
Journal of Transport & Health
|January 11, 2023
Summary
Disinfection and off-peak travel effectively reduce COVID-19 spread in metros. Combining these strategies offers the best solution, significantly lowering infection rates, especially in busy stations.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Transportation Safety
Background:
- Transportation facilities, like metros, are high-risk environments for virus transmission.
- The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the urgent need to understand and mitigate risks in public transit.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze COVID-19 transmission dynamics within metro systems.
- To evaluate the effectiveness of various control measures, including disinfection and off-peak travel policies.
Main Methods:
- Developed a transmission model based on the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model.
- Incorporated spatial and temporal characteristics of metro passenger flow.
- Conducted simulation experiments to analyze single and combined intervention strategies.
Main Results:
- Both disinfection and off-peak travel significantly reduce the number of infected individuals.
- Disinfection proved more effective than off-peak travel when implemented individually.
- A combined strategy of disinfection and off-peak travel yielded optimal results, reducing infection rates by up to 50% in high-traffic stations.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a scientific foundation for developing COVID-19 prevention strategies in urban transport.
- Findings are applicable to mitigating other infectious diseases, such as seasonal flu, in public health contexts.
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