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Updated: Aug 14, 2025
Determining Temperature Preference of Mosquitoes and Other Ectotherms
Published on: September 28, 2022
Modelling the current and future temperature suitability of the UK for the vector Hyalomma marginatum (Acari:
Emma L Gillingham1, Jolyon M Medlock2, Helen Macintyre3
1Climate Change and Health, UK Health Security Agency.
Abstract:
Hyalomma marginatum is the main vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and spotted fever rickettsiae in Europe. The distribution of H. marginatum is currently restricted to parts of southern Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and one of the drivers limiting distribution is climate, particularly temperature. As temperatures rise with climate change, parts of northern Europe currently considered too cold for H. marginatum to be able to survive may become suitable, including the United Kingdom (UK), presenting a potential public health concern. Here we use a series of modelling methodologies to understand whether mean air temperatures across the UK during 2000-2019 were sufficient for H. marginatum nymphs to moult into adult stages and be able to overwinter in the UK if they were introduced on migratory birds. We then used UK-specific climate projections (UKCP18) to determine whether predicted temperatures would be sufficient to allow survival in future. We found that spring temperatures in parts of the UK during 2000-2019 were warm enough for predicted moulting to occur, but in all years except 2006, temperatures during September to December were too cold for overwintering to occur. Our analysis of the projections data suggests that whilst temperatures in the UK during September to December will increase in future, they are likely to remain below the threshold required for H. marginatum populations to become established.
Insights
Climate change may allow the tick Hyalomma marginatum, a vector for diseases like Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, to survive in the UK. However, current and projected winter temperatures are likely too cold for tick establishment.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Entomology
- Climate Change Impact
- Public Health Entomology
Background:
- Hyalomma marginatum ticks transmit serious pathogens like Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV).
- Current distribution of H. marginatum is limited by temperature, primarily in southern regions.
- Climate change may expand the habitable range of disease vectors into new areas, including the UK.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess if UK temperatures between 2000-2019 supported H. marginatum nymphal development and overwintering.
- To project future UK temperatures and evaluate their suitability for H. marginatum establishment.
Main Methods:
- Utilized historical UK meteorological data (2000-2019) to model tick survival and development.
- Employed UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) for future temperature scenario analysis.
- Focused on nymphal-to-adult moulting and overwintering survival thresholds.
Main Results:
- Spring temperatures in parts of the UK were sufficient for H. marginatum moulting during 2000-2019.
- Autumn/winter temperatures (September-December) were too cold for overwintering in most years studied.
- Future UK climate projections indicate rising temperatures but likely insufficient for sustained tick populations.
Conclusions:
- While spring conditions may permit tick development, UK winters currently pose a significant barrier to H. marginatum establishment.
- Projected warming may increase suitability, but critical overwintering thresholds are unlikely to be met soon.
- The risk of H. marginatum establishment in the UK due to climate change appears low based on current temperature suitability.
