The changing pattern of bronchial carcinoma

The figures for the incidence of bronchial carcinoma have been monitored in various age groups and in both sexes since 1975 when a previous paper on the subject was published. These figures are available up to 1983. The total incidence of bronchial carcinoma in men started to fall after 1974, while in women it is still rising. The incidence amongst men up to the age of 59 started to fall after 1960; in women, this occurred 20 years later, and it has fallen in the 60-64 age group since 1982. The incidence is still rising in older women, but is falling in all groups of men up to the age of 80. Thus the trend seen amongst the men in 1975 seems to be being repeated amongst the women. The fall in the incidence of bronchial cancer has occurred amongst the group of women who have smoked more than any of their predecessors. Some possible reasons for this surprising finding are discussed.