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Nonlinear dynamics in Divisia monetary aggregates: an application of recurrence quantification analysis.

Ioannis Andreadis1, Athanasios D Fragkou1, Theodoros E Karakasidis1

  • 1University of Calgary, Calgary, AB Canada.

Financial Innovation
|January 16, 2023
PubMed
Summary

This study uses recurrence quantification analysis to examine U.S. Divisia monetary aggregates. Findings suggest nonlinear dynamics and reveal shifts linked to policy changes and financial innovations.

Keywords:
Deterministic dynamicsDivisia monetary aggregatesMoving windowsRecurrence plotsStochastic structures

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Area of Science:

  • Economics
  • Financial Stability Analysis
  • Time Series Dynamics

Background:

  • The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) Divisia monetary aggregates provide a comprehensive measure of money supply.
  • Understanding the dynamic properties of monetary aggregates is crucial for economic policy and financial stability.
  • The study period (1967-2020) encompasses significant economic events, including the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the dynamic properties of U.S. Divisia monetary aggregates using recurrence quantification analysis (RQA).
  • To compare the dynamics between narrow and broad Divisia money measures.
  • To identify structural breaks and their association with monetary policy and financial innovations.

Main Methods:

  • Construction of recurrence plots (RPs) and application of recurrence quantification analysis (RQA).
  • Analysis of monthly data for U.S. Divisia monetary aggregates from January 1967 to December 2020.
  • Moving window RQA applied to growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates.

Main Results:

  • Evidence of nonlinear dynamics in Divisia monetary aggregates, with a potential for chaotic explanations.
  • Identification of an additional drift structure in broad Divisia aggregates around the 2008 global financial crisis.
  • Detection of distinct periods of changes in data-generating processes for both narrow and broad aggregates.

Conclusions:

  • Divisia monetary aggregates exhibit complex, nonlinear dynamics.
  • Structural changes in monetary aggregates are linked to shifts in monetary policy regimes and financial innovations.
  • RQA is a valuable tool for uncovering hidden dynamics and structural breaks in financial time series data.