Long Short-Term Memory-Based Deep Learning Models for Screening Parkinson's Disease Using Sequential Diagnostic Codes

It is challenging to detect Parkinson's disease (PD) in its early stages, which has prompted researchers to develop techniques based on machine learning methods for detecting PD. However, previous studies did not fully incorporate the slow progression of PD over a long period of time nor consider that its symptoms occur in a time-sequential manner. Contributing to the literature on PD, which has relied heavily on cross-sectional data, this study aimed to develop a method for detecting PD early that can process time-series information using the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm.

We sampled 926 patients with PD and 9,260 subjects without PD using medical-claims data. The LSTM algorithm was tested using diagnostic histories, which contained the diagnostic codes and their respective time information. We compared the prediction power of the 12-month diagnostic codes under two different settings over the 4 years prior to the first PD diagnosis.

The model that was trained using the most-recent 12-month diagnostic codes had the best performance, with an accuracy of 94.25%, a sensitivity of 82.91%, and a specificity of 95.26%. The other three models (12-month codes from 2, 3, and 4 years prior) were found to have comparable performances, with accuracies of 92.27%, 91.86%, and 91.81%, respectively. The areas under the curve from our data settings ranged from 0.839 to 0.923.

We explored the possibility that PD specialists could benefit from our proposed machine learning method as an early detection method for PD.