Predictors of mortality among severe acute malnourished children. A multi-center prospective follow-up study

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is a public health problem in developing countries including Ethiopia, because of the high risk of death, most severely malnourished children are managed in hospitals. Hence, the aim of this study was to assess the predictors of mortality among severely malnourished children admitted in Gedeo zone hospitals, Southern Ethiopia.

Multicenter institution-based prospective follow-up study was conducted among 568 severely malnourished children with age <5 years in Gedeo zone hospitals from December 2018 to April 2020. Survival analysis with Cox proportional hazard model was conducted to determine factors associated with mortality rate. Variables with a p-value <0.05 in multivariate regression were considered statistically significant.

From a total of 568 children admitted with SAM; 54(9.5%), 306(53.9%), 179(31.5%) and 29(5.1%) died, recovered, transferred out and defaulted respectively. Over the study period, the rate of mortality was eight per 1000 person-days. Comorbidity after admission (Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.96; 95% CI 1.35, 6.47), being HIV reactive (AHR = 1.31; 95% CI 1.12, 1.72), hospital stay for more than one week (AHR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.03, 3.12), no formal education of the mother (AHR 2.25; 95% CI 1.24, 4.08) and Nasogastric (NG) tube (AHR = 1.87; 95% CI: 1.562-2.37) given were the significant predictors of mortality.

Maternal/caregiver educational status, co-morbidity after admission, being HIV reactive, vaccination status, hospital stay for more than one week and NG tube given were found as significant determinant factors of mortality rate. Hence, the government of Ethiopia and stakeholders should implement strong interventions focusing on these predictors.